Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93644df387d7fff741943ee266bd9f6ab32e574e37e44a55751449b7823fea8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe909…7bb9backed Over | 0c | 46,984$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,509$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…e0fdbacked Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 838.64$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.78 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 657.04$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.63 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 48c | 603.6$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 385.48$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.21 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 356.71$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.66 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 325.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 18c | 283.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 60c | 271$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 215.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 49c | 214.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Over | 52c | 194.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 137.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 123.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 50c | 99.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 51c | 81.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 62c | 72.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 60c | 56.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 60c | 50.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 43c | 40.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…aeddbacked Over | 60c | 38.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ce98backed Under | 41c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 42c | 34.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 33.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 54c | 23.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 52c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.