Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f1b1e1eb238e3e25fe4b974d2a0765edf7c0ba7698445854a7519440d16fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe909…7bb9backed Over | 0c | 16,319$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 769.82$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.93 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 568.46$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.55 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 476.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.82 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 19c | 299.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 282.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 259.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.79 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 211$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 173$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 33c | 145.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 112.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 73cpaid | -42%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…42a7backed Over | 31c | 99.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 98.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 55c | 91.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 16c | 90.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…cac7backed Over | 55c | 90.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 31c | 72.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 47c | 71.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 59.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Over | 51c | 47.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 67c | 44.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 72c | 29.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 52c | 28.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…f29cbacked Over | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Under | 59c | 26.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.