Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93777c2a9e406020f7846f4e9d9b79ae131dbbde3250910dbea5ce08a1f84a8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof MOUZ, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked MOUZ | 32c | 6,394$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.86 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked MOUZ | 45c | 4,060$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.26 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Team Falcons | 68c | 3,686$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.53 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 23c | 3,547$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.67 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed MOUZ | 2c | 3,343$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Team Falcons | 79c | 2,548$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.71 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed MOUZ | 23c | 1,922$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.2 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 18c | 1,827$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.65 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 1,634$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.73 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 20c | 1,402$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.48 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Falcons | 77c | 1,269$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.26 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ | 36c | 1,043$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.19 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed MOUZ | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ | 42c | 859.19$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.86 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Team Falcons | 77c | 658.3$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ | 3c | 601.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 26c | 590.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked MOUZ | 22c | 588.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons | 61c | 566.99$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 550.57$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e29…68e3backed Team Falcons | 61c | 516.78$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked MOUZ | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Falcons | 58c | 347.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.44 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 341.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 69c | 320$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MOUZ | 34c | 299.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Team Falcons | 59c | 285.1$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed MOUZ | 29c | 222.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 218.32$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…1325backed Team Falcons | 58c | 216.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Team Falcons | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Team Falcons | 59c | 199.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Team Falcons | 76c | 171.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…b30ebacked Team Falcons | 63c | 158.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…71eebacked MOUZ | 40c | 138.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed MOUZ | 38c | 131.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…9a81backed Team Falcons | 67c | 118.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Team Falcons | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed MOUZ | 28c | 99.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed MOUZ | 43c | 93.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Team Falcons | 77c | 92.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…6a11backed Team Falcons | 79c | 84.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Team Falcons | 61c | 82.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Team Falcons | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ | 29c | 69.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Falcons | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Team Falcons | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…da7dbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 45.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked MOUZ | 24c | 42.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Team Falcons | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Team Falcons | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dde9backed Team Falcons | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 36.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Team Falcons | 75c | 35.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed MOUZ | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed MOUZ | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.