Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d908496dc1ab19bb307b64a2ef6fadfe1b2554bf50e6079995405ee7b5f611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof MOUZ, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Team Falcons | 66c | 2,868$1,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.3 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ | 30c | 2,087$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.92 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Team Falcons | 69c | 1,715$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked MOUZ | 3c | 1,240$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed MOUZ | 32c | 1,218$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.19 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked MOUZ | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 31c | 963.06$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.82 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 66c | 895.83$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.98 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed MOUZ | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 41c | 799.99$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 689.07$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.06 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 33c | 640.91$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 36c | 628.88$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.82 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Team Falcons | 64c | 598.56$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Falcons | 68c | 584.14$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 29c | 396.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed MOUZ | 36c | 359.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Team Falcons | 70c | 322.56$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Team Falcons | 65c | 308.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Falcons | 73c | 301.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked MOUZ | 33c | 301.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Falcons | 69c | 295.29$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ | 45c | 294.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 27c | 284.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 262.58$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed MOUZ | 19c | 261.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed MOUZ | 21c | 220.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Falcons | 69c | 218.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 34c | 211.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked MOUZ | 33c | 200.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Team Falcons | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…9a81backed MOUZ | 8c | 184.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9c…bcfcbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked MOUZ | 45c | 156.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Team Falcons | 75c | 151.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Team Falcons | 63c | 149.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed MOUZ | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked MOUZ | 42c | 105.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed MOUZ | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Falcons | 67c | 105.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Team Falcons | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Falcons | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 28c | 99.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796b…56fdbacked MOUZ | 34c | 91.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Team Falcons | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Team Falcons | 57c | 79.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked MOUZ | 40c | 79.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ | 33c | 78.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed MOUZ | 45c | 66.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons | 56c | 65.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed MOUZ | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed MOUZ | 36c | 57.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c6…7d8cbacked MOUZ | 33c | 46.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Team Falcons | 60c | 44.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…de96backed Team Falcons | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Team Falcons | 64c | 35.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…da7dbacked Team Falcons | 69c | 33.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed Team Falcons | 67c | 31.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…71eebacked MOUZ | 41c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…54cbbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Team Falcons | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d16…d548backed Team Falcons | 78c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3)Team Falcons won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.