MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93dde90d7e1fc5c289cdd2629285f401e35c0faf9623b6ffc2be9b7d8ac9d462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 12,850$7,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,216.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 8,948$3,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,969.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 4,607$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,880$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 57c | 1,254$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.51 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 53c | 652.85$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.01 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 54c | 203.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 57c | 175.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 57c | 124.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 56c | 36.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 56c | 34.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 49c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 57c | 25.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…47b6backed Over | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.