TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,920 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under45c2,649$1,192 inLost-$1,191.772,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over53c749.75$397 inWon+$352.278,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over50c665$333 inWon+$332.3547545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under38c408.73$155 inLost-$155.4811,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over58c390.09$228 inWon+$161.932,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over62c271.04$167 inWon+$104.1912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Over57c214.61$122 inWon+$92.284472.7%32 W · 12 L+7.7wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under46c210.13$98 inLost-$97.571,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over57c205$117 inWon+$88.154,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under43c200$86 inLost-$861,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under47c181.12$84 inLost-$84.3977952.1%406 W · 373 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over42c130.96$55 inWon+$75.963,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over50c119.34$60 inWon+$59.6710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over42c97.63$41 inWon+$56.6358352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Under40c78.47$31 inLost-$31.4238053.2%202 W · 178 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…de15backed Over55c70.73$39 inWon+$31.8917160.8%104 W · 67 L+11.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b1d…a01abacked Under58c60.34$35 inLost-$356152.5%32 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Over54c54.85$30 inWon+$25.2640048.5%194 W · 206 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…78a5backed Under52c51.12$27 inLost-$26.589129.7%27 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Under52c42.01$22 inLost-$21.6420552.7%108 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over42c30$13 inWon+$17.42,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under44c28.03$12 inLost-$12.338,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under45c22.49$10 inLost-$10.1447346.5%220 W · 253 L+25.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over62c20.5$13 inWon+$7.791,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Over58c20.28$12 inWon+$8.5247358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.