MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27971b295b1577d3d8162c92b9ba888d01a1f1947a771558380084a8d2476854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 3,146$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.21 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 2,720$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.27 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 1,981$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.4 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 1,462$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.05 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 36c | 907.08$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.27 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 69c | 878.53$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.21 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 753$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.44 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 738.4$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.51 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 305.79$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 68c | 260.68$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 218 | 59.2%129 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 260.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 75c | 250.5$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 67c | 194$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 352 | 54.5%192 W · 160 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 77.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 33c | 67.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,236 | 44.3%547 W · 689 L | -30.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 52c | 63.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 32c | 59.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 809 | 51.9%420 W · 389 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 360 | 48.9%176 W · 184 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 52c | 44.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 67c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 38.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Under | 30c | 35.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 37c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 266 | 48.1%128 W · 138 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 65c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 67c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 151 | 53.6%81 W · 70 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 72c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,255 | 58.3%732 W · 523 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 68c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 522 | 57.3%299 W · 223 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.