MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1a19ce7ab3a7a3b6e411bbec0605517ae8115294210f64b2a9c2b621227a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Houston Astros, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 6,076$2,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,602.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 59c | 5,663$3,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.81 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 33c | 866.19$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 24c | 749.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Athletics | 76c | 485$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 24c | 452$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 76c | 280$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 32c | 248.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Athletics | 23c | 224$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 26c | 200.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Athletics | 26c | 194.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 26c | 171.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 137$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Athletics | 45c | 135$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Athletics | 64c | 125.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 101.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 32c | 77.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 31c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 34c | 45.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…3cc1backed Houston Astros | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Athletics | 43c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Athletics | 38c | 37.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Houston Astros | 69c | 25.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 64c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Athletics | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Athletics | 73c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.