MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6449ef14f5fe763091824304fb338eb8b136d99a165a77cc135c847be3b6eb45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 66c | 49,196$32,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,557.63 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 31,270$11,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,345.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 17,138$7,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,468.55 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 34c | 16,939$5,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,179.84 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 10,298$5,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,602.38 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 57c | 6,652$3,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,793.9 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 57c | 3,447$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.79 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 33c | 1,398$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.12 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,094$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 1,035$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 54c | 917.22$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.41 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 906.86$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 569.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 65c | 469.05$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 55c | 467.02$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.96 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 392$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 54c | 368.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 293.7$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.55 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 220.66$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 45c | 203.32$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 185$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 54c | 184.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 54c | 184.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 66c | 117.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 116.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Under | 51c | 95.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 48c | 81.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…4db7backed Under | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 42c | 54.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 35c | 49.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 50c | 48.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…f11dbacked Over | 35c | 44.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 57c | 42.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 45c | 36.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 40c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Over | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 66c | 31.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Under | 57c | 31.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 41c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 54c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Under | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 57c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.