Asian League · resolved market
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941012e786eb79e32dc46ffffb2f0d528c3f6fb7cac9b88c9086b6360481d082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed No | 48c | 25,470$12,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,257.53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 52c | 11,924$6,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,777.72 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 71c | 6,682$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.43 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 52c | 1,771$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.7 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,351$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.54 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 66c | 810.23$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.1 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked No | 44c | 676.48$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…6b45backed Yes | 69c | 590.71$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Yes | 53c | 550.08$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.54 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 53c | 550.06$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.53 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 500.1$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.05 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…6d9cbacked No | 24c | 493.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 58c | 490.87$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.61 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 78c | 485.47$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 37c | 423$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 36c | 378.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 51c | 377.93$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Yes | 53c | 366.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 53c | 366.7$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.35 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 54c | 298.19$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.17 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 52c | 289.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 53c | 262.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 43c | 220.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 58c | 211.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 43c | 193.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 191.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…f1a6backed Yes | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…8483backed Yes | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 51c | 158.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 65c | 151.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Yes | 53c | 135.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 69c | 132.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 53c | 116.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 52c | 105.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 52c | 94.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 52c | 93.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 51c | 92.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 22c | 91.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…be0cbacked Yes | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed No | 23c | 89.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 51c | 88.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…caa0backed Yes | 54c | 86.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…6fe0backed Yes | 78c | 75.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…cc6bbacked Yes | 52c | 75.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…1a62backed Yes | 80c | 74.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 53c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 46c | 65.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 52c | 65.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Yes | 51c | 62.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Yes | 52c | 62.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Yes | 52c | 60.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 51c | 60.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 51c | 60.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…d46dbacked Yes | 52c | 58.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Yes | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 52c | 54.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 52c | 53.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…293ebacked Yes | 53c | 52.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 45c | 50.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…08f7backed Yes | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Yes | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…4515backed Yes | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…afb2backed Yes | 52c | 35.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Yes | 56c | 35.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 59c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 72c | 31.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Yes | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 51c | 30.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Yes | 51c | 28.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 52c | 25.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed Yes | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Yes | 52c | 23.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 52c | 21.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…1607backed Yes | 60c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.