Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941a4a162df226b08c2f7428f1ee7dc3101c8fb72402b8d091f8942f03ecc359
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf332…ffa2backed Yes | 0c | 9,143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 2,707$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 910.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 2c | 571.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 13c | 495.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 16c | 352.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 5c | 270.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 11c | 250.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 15c | 230.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 11c | 229.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 17c | 229.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 181.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 176.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 165.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 149.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 139.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 23c | 138.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 123.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 118.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 22c | 111.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 19c | 108.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 32c | 96.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 85.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 82.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…4fb4backed Yes | 24c | 79.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 24c | 73.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 70.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 31c | 65.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 65.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 73c | 64.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 63.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 31c | 59.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 18c | 58.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 22c | 54.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 49.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 30c | 49.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 31c | 43.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 42.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 25c | 41.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked No | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 28c | 36.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 29.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 74c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 25.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 74c | 23.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 76c | 22.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 78c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 78c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 80c | 15.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 75c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 78c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 76c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.