Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8689e23ece8e4ea953acad3aaedb92eee393b04c6bb126c0c448631fc7f61a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 17c | 2,993$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.14 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed No | 47c | 1,401$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 777.64$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 541.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 377.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 302.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 36c | 289.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 250.78$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 221.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 68c | 175.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 174.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 171.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 30c | 159.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 35c | 147.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 143.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 142.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 20c | 136.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 63c | 123.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 121.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 23c | 120.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dc…ecefbacked No | 59c | 119.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 21c | 118.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 117.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 14c | 117.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 68c | 117.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 112.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 18c | 111.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 109.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 23c | 108.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 25c | 104.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 31c | 99.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 23c | 99.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 18c | 96.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 33c | 96.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 36c | 94.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 25c | 94.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 61c | 92.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 84.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 69c | 81.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 78c | 80.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e06…4664backed Yes | 20c | 79.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…e523backed No | 31c | 76.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 25c | 73.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 60c | 72.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 78c | 72.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 54c | 71.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 70.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 45c | 65.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 21c | 64.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 75c | 64.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 64.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…7723backed Yes | 60c | 63.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 63.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f5…3cf7backed Yes | 79c | 58.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 51c | 56.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 78c | 54.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 31c | 54.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 25c | 50.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 24c | 49.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 23c | 49.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 26c | 47.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 46.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 45c | 42.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 31c | 41.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 40.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 76c | 38.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 31c | 37.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 79c | 37.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 48c | 36.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 59c | 35.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 57c | 35.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 34.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 32c | 33.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 32.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 32.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 55c | 31.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 52c | 29.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 29.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 35c | 28.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 47c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 78c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.