Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1502a61a189d4c9b7f602eed746fbb12a085d12e8db56c5af0c804afea36636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8abd…c2a6backed No | 1c | 1,854$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 1,301$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 719.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 718.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 511.42$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.03 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 427.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 8c | 399.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.92 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 379.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 340.17$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 285.01$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 14c | 271.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.94 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 15c | 241.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.24 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 12c | 235.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 36c | 225.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 221.79$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.74 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 216.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 210.48$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 202.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 183.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 14c | 180.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 23c | 177.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 19c | 165.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 33c | 137.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 126.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 126.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 26c | 122.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 11c | 122.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 32c | 118.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 18c | 117.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 115.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 111.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 105.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 32c | 102.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 12c | 102.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 34c | 95.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 94.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed Yes | 23c | 92.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 23c | 90.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 88.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 25c | 80.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 59c | 80.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…9f26backed Yes | 45c | 73.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 27c | 61.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 74c | 57.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 78c | 56.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 59c | 55.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 21c | 49.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 41c | 44.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 63c | 40.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 49c | 38.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 31c | 37.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked Yes | 41c | 36.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 31.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 74c | 27.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 65c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.