MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9437b5df230067a3f152130a54db8a4288d5f8fbb89ceac88caeb191367b8055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.99 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 1,072$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 893.52$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 39c | 712.3$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 610.51$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 572.96$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked New York Yankees | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 346.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 237.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Yankees | 43c | 234$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 161.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees | 30c | 149.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed New York Yankees | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Yankees | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 29c | 34.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.