MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11eddb7883ac2b2591258fb2331224d04b15869e4acc45dccdbc89bc957faafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 55c | 52,159$28,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,471.77 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 50,300$22,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,635.06 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 53c | 10,746$5,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,742.75 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 47c | 8,069$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,308.6 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,798$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 46c | 2,207$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 46c | 1,274$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.15 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 584.74$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Over | 55c | 550$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 55c | 470.93$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.92 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 340$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 55c | 333$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 305$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 51c | 298$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 184.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 54c | 162.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 139.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 55c | 129.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 123.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5719…f37fbacked Over | 51c | 121.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…095dbacked Over | 55c | 114.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 88.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Over | 56c | 88.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 55c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310b…19ccbacked Under | 33c | 67.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 48.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 45.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…f901backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…b830backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Over | 47c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 34.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Over | 51c | 34.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1641…a37fbacked Under | 46c | 33.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Over | 47c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 55c | 28.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…d145backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 47c | 26.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Under | 46c | 22.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 16.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.