Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x946239961cb9209d2eda068c0f9175fc642747d664a19a6fc62df337608ee60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 649.64$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 633.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 4c | 309.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 77c | 292.17$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 181.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 23c | 170.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 22c | 141.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 132.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 131.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 23c | 130.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 11c | 123.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 119.05$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 105.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 20c | 91.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 78.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 66.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 80c | 59.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 46.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 41.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 33.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 31.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 80c | 19.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 79c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 79c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 79c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 72c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 85°F or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.