Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfabc4c8e28055726b44ff368b2b6a76ce8d772d1bb8ba0fff9c9504b15c80e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 726.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 332.04$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 326.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 291.77$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 259.61$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 68c | 256.04$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.13 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 29c | 148$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 139.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 138.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 111$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 103.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 101.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 97.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 80.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 79.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 79.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 72c | 71.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 68.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 68.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 30c | 66.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 66.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 65.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 60.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 46.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 45.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 37.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 29.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 73c | 25.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 85°F or below on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.