Tennis · resolved market
Braunschweig: Marvin Moeller vs Adolfo Vallejo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9468143875f6544500cee0f8506d12c9f2801e4255472e75a79cd59a842c9c6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marvin Moellerof Marvin Moeller, Adolfo Vallejo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Adolfo Vallejo | 54c | 27,399$14,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,829.19 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Marvin Moeller | 45c | 20,000$8,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,096.04 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Marvin Moeller | 47c | 14,359$6,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,610.13 | 1,217 | 46.3%563 W · 654 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marvin Moeller | 45c | 9,475$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,235.03 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9f45backed Marvin Moeller | 71c | 3,054$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.71 | 229 | 39.3%90 W · 139 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 2,267$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.87 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 33c | 2,127$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.85 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marvin Moeller | 67c | 1,993$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.26 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Marvin Moeller | 54c | 1,894$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.03 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Adolfo Vallejo | 48c | 1,385$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 319 | 36.4%116 W · 203 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed Adolfo Vallejo | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Marvin Moeller | 64c | 800.72$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.56 | 487 | 56.5%275 W · 212 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Marvin Moeller | 54c | 681.45$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.36 | 3,155 | 57.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L | +176.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Marvin Moeller | 79c | 647.91$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 234 | 62.8%147 W · 87 L | +16.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 13c | 499.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Marvin Moeller | 18c | 449.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.45 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Marvin Moeller | 46c | 414.49$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.82 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Adolfo Vallejo | 59c | 411.06$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.29 | 4,602 | 67.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L | +309.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Marvin Moeller | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Adolfo Vallejo | 60c | 400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 1,632 | 52.7%860 W · 772 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marvin Moeller | 57c | 398.65$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.91 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 380.77$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Marvin Moeller | 46c | 301.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…200bbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 18c | 271$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Marvin Moeller | 79c | 267.97$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Marvin Moeller | 52c | 252.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 1,289 | 65.2%841 W · 448 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…fcf4backed Marvin Moeller | 46c | 240.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Marvin Moeller | 51c | 204.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 1,476 | 43.8%647 W · 829 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a38bbacked Marvin Moeller | 49c | 198.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 225 | 67.1%151 W · 74 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 187.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Marvin Moeller | 50c | 159.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Marvin Moeller | 18c | 157.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 415 | 35.4%147 W · 268 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…e345backed Marvin Moeller | 56c | 140.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Marvin Moeller | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 2,326 | 52.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L | +85.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Adolfo Vallejo | 54c | 109.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Marvin Moeller | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Adolfo Vallejo | 46c | 107.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 1,824 | 46.5%849 W · 975 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Marvin Moeller | 19c | 106$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Marvin Moeller | 20c | 102$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 363 | 48.2%175 W · 188 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Adolfo Vallejo | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 373 | 54.2%202 W · 171 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Marvin Moeller | 17c | 84.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Adolfo Vallejo | 36c | 81.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Adolfo Vallejo | 57c | 75.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 857 | 42.8%367 W · 490 L | -23.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Adolfo Vallejo | 36c | 70.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 64c | 66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Adolfo Vallejo | 27c | 65.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…d9b6backed Marvin Moeller | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Adolfo Vallejo | 38c | 52.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3d67backed Marvin Moeller | 55c | 44.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Adolfo Vallejo | 24c | 44.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 356 | 49.4%176 W · 180 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Adolfo Vallejo | 40c | 36.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,099 | 44.5%935 W · 1,164 L | -51.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Adolfo Vallejo | 70c | 35.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Adolfo Vallejo | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Adolfo Vallejo | 50c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Marvin Moeller | 53c | 26.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 956 | 58.2%556 W · 400 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Adolfo Vallejo | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Marvin Moeller | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Marvin Moeller | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…71c9backed Adolfo Vallejo | 60c | 22.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 162 | 58.6%95 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Marvin Moeller | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Adolfo Vallejo | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Adolfo Vallejo | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Adolfo Vallejo | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Marvin Moeller | 79c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 256 | 59%151 W · 105 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Adolfo Vallejo | 65c | 18.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 897 | 41.7%374 W · 523 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Adolfo Vallejo | 75c | 13.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.