TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Braunschweig: Marvin Moeller vs Adolfo Vallejo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marvin Moellerof Marvin Moeller, Adolfo Vallejo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,377 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Adolfo Vallejo54c27,399$14,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,829.199,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Marvin Moeller45c20,000$8,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,096.043,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Marvin Moeller47c14,359$6,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,610.131,21746.3%563 W · 654 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Marvin Moeller45c9,475$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,235.0311,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Marvin Moeller71c3,054$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.7122939.3%90 W · 139 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Adolfo Vallejo52c2,267$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.871,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Adolfo Vallejo33c2,127$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.854,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marvin Moeller67c1,993$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.268,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Marvin Moeller54c1,894$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.034,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Adolfo Vallejo48c1,385$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66531936.4%116 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf511…bfe4backed Adolfo Vallejo58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked Marvin Moeller64c800.72$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.5648756.5%275 W · 212 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Marvin Moeller54c681.45$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.363,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Marvin Moeller79c647.91$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2123462.8%147 W · 87 L+16.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Adolfo Vallejo13c499.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.666,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Marvin Moeller18c449.33$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.455,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Marvin Moeller46c414.49$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.8261924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Adolfo Vallejo59c411.06$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.294,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Marvin Moeller48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2084,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Adolfo Vallejo60c400$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2381,63252.7%860 W · 772 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marvin Moeller57c398.65$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.918,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Adolfo Vallejo52c380.77$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1986,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Marvin Moeller46c301.89$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.021,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…200bbacked Adolfo Vallejo18c271$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.097751.9%40 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Marvin Moeller79c267.97$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.272,08754.1%1,130 W · 957 L+64.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Marvin Moeller52c252.12$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.021,28965.2%841 W · 448 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Marvin Moeller46c240.14$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6818959.8%113 W · 76 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Marvin Moeller51c204.6$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.571,47643.8%647 W · 829 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a38bbacked Marvin Moeller49c198.47$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2222567.1%151 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Adolfo Vallejo52c187.19$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.341,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Marvin Moeller50c159.8$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.929354.9%161 W · 132 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Marvin Moeller18c157.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3341535.4%147 W · 268 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bdc…e345backed Marvin Moeller56c140.35$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1517343.9%76 W · 97 L-0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Marvin Moeller47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.62,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Adolfo Vallejo54c109.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.486467.2%43 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Marvin Moeller46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.717829.2%52 W · 126 L+0.7wins0.00per pick29cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Adolfo Vallejo46c107.4$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.161,82446.5%849 W · 975 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Marvin Moeller19c106$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.862,52836.2%914 W · 1,614 L-26.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Marvin Moeller20c102$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.636348.2%175 W · 188 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x293c…dcbabacked Adolfo Vallejo53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5337354.2%202 W · 171 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Marvin Moeller17c84.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3790152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Adolfo Vallejo36c81.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.359,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Adolfo Vallejo52c76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5272755.6%404 W · 323 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Adolfo Vallejo57c75.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1785742.8%367 W · 490 L-23.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Adolfo Vallejo36c70.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.855,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Adolfo Vallejo64c66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.231,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf753…bcfebacked Adolfo Vallejo27c65.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853736.9%198 W · 339 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…d9b6backed Marvin Moeller52c64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x663e…9cf0backed Adolfo Vallejo38c52.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8425237.3%94 W · 158 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed Marvin Moeller55c44.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9812061.7%74 W · 46 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed Adolfo Vallejo24c44.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4935649.4%176 W · 180 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Adolfo Vallejo52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7627550.2%138 W · 137 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Adolfo Vallejo52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7629551.5%152 W · 143 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Adolfo Vallejo52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7656153.7%301 W · 260 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Adolfo Vallejo40c36.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.622,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Adolfo Vallejo70c35.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.811,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Adolfo Vallejo52c31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1221447.2%101 W · 113 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Adolfo Vallejo45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540144.1%177 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Adolfo Vallejo50c28.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Marvin Moeller53c26.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6495658.2%556 W · 400 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Adolfo Vallejo42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.632726.9%88 W · 239 L-43.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Marvin Moeller67c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9297852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Marvin Moeller79c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0441436.7%152 W · 262 L-1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…71c9backed Adolfo Vallejo60c22.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6716258.6%95 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Marvin Moeller70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb37…189abacked Adolfo Vallejo50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021451.9%111 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x061a…5a89backed Adolfo Vallejo53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652157%297 W · 224 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b46…ed0dbacked Adolfo Vallejo64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.832452.5%170 W · 154 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Marvin Moeller79c19.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0825659%151 W · 105 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Adolfo Vallejo65c18.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1489741.7%374 W · 523 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Adolfo Vallejo75c13.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.182,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.