Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9470d4685f13005149a6647d8f10222a22e3d56208691d535e8a0133db3228d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 38c | 289.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 27c | 249.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 206.84$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 195$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 32c | 148.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -83%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 147.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 43c | 145.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 138.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 119.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 115.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 110.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 108.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 106.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…17b3backed Yes | 31c | 92.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…177abacked Yes | 28c | 89.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fe00backed Yes | 35c | 81.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 72.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 28c | 70.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 59.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 24c | 58.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 29c | 56.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 42c | 52.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 50.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 50.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…f570backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 28c | 40.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 38.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 34.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…f408backed Yes | 35c | 31.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 60c | 30.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 23.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 72c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 68c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.