Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd9b29dae08748662c7c54a5977b7f346923069535be84e72306bb378195996e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 480$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 36c | 249.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 227.07$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 214.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 57c | 189.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 33c | 187.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 178.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 159.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 138.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 137.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 91.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 76.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 44c | 65.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 65.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 54.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 49.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 33c | 45.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 29c | 41.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 37.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 29c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 47c | 36.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 34c | 34.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 44c | 32.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 27.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 70c | 23.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 18.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 68c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.