Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a0a1c614f02f8e25b32c049856fc1aa59e2e9b7444920a800867b05949483c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 643.22$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.64 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 369.48$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 314.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 280.78$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 52c | 263.96$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 59c | 261.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 203.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 21c | 197.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 192.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 190.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 47c | 183.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.61 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 159.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 158$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 151.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 21c | 138.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 75c | 132.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 132.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…03c7backed Yes | 31c | 128.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…fefcbacked Yes | 51c | 117.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 42c | 115.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 111.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 58c | 92.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 91.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 53c | 87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 83.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 80.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 65c | 75.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 75.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 66c | 75.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 70.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 72c | 68.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 61c | 64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 48c | 58.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 62c | 57.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 42c | 56.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…db23backed Yes | 40c | 50.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 60c | 50.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 49.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 43.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 41c | 42.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 40.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 74c | 40.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 69c | 39.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 42c | 37.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 35.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 56c | 35.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 31.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 22.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 79c | 19.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 16.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 62c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.