Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ace220cfda2286287676f612cdceaad578fe94e936c5306539e938d186fb65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 1c | 5,021$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,027$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 404.61$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 278.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 212.25$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 184.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 69c | 137.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 40c | 135.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…dd2fbacked Yes | 79c | 126.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 126.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 32c | 124.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 46c | 114.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 111.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 110.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 39c | 107.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 97.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 85.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed No | 22c | 67.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 32c | 61.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 59.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 71c | 51.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 30c | 49.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 49.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 32c | 47.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 68c | 44.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 40.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…2618backed Yes | 32c | 39.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +213%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 71c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 71c | 30.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 74c | 26.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 25.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 24.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 60c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 79c | 15.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 74c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 74c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.