Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef7f2ac7b3b5d0741a2ebe4006dcf3ac8bfaabf3a706c21fe6323b4337c0274a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 806.41$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 30c | 354.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…dd2fbacked Yes | 45c | 222.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 48c | 200.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 199.73$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 185.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 182.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 181.69$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 50c | 180.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 44c | 152.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 152.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 137.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 135.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 55c | 126.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 40c | 123.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 43c | 120.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 108.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…e346backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…3546backed Yes | 63c | 79.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 76.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 19c | 75.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 61c | 74.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 14c | 71.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…68b2backed No | 42c | 70.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 55c | 70.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 17c | 68.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 49c | 61.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 44c | 60.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 57c | 59.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 53c | 58.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 45c | 50.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 46.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked Yes | 50c | 45.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…2618backed Yes | 47c | 44.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +213%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 41.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 40.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 43c | 39.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 36.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked Yes | 50c | 35.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 34.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 34.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 50c | 34.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 42c | 32.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 31.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 44c | 31.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 62c | 29.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…b609backed Yes | 50c | 29.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 47c | 28.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 28.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 46c | 26.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 56c | 25.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 48c | 25.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 49c | 22.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.