Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b9b732ce28104d6794b266eb764124cd2566032a04f393841a4aaddec1960d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d1b…d40fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,423$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 670.78$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 293$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 284.07$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 245.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 5c | 244.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 243.1$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 30c | 183.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed Yes | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 150.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 35c | 142.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 133.02$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 126.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 109.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 100.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 88.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 82.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 37c | 77.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 66.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 62.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 34c | 62.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 42c | 60.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 58.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 34c | 55.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 50.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…7313backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 31c | 45.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 70c | 38.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 37.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 36.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 35.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 35.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 32.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 31c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…474cbacked No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 49c | 27.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 18.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.