Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94c99b09cdc5f9f4b7a37e76f9ad800c28d4728ef55ccfef18082c94a86aa3ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 484.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 2c | 484.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 439.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 359.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 322.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 272.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 17c | 204.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 192.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 166.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 155.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 13c | 154.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 149.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 14c | 149.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 142.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked Yes | 22c | 137.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 133.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 77c | 133.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 131.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 102.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 15c | 98.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 59c | 96.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 88.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 68.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 28c | 67.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 15c | 67.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 60.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 60.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 24c | 56.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 20c | 55.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 54.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 23c | 50.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 77c | 47.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 46.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 23c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…73eebacked No | 77c | 37.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 39c | 27.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 77c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.