TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes70c914.64$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.7665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No4c851.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3161820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes58c645.56$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed No3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes77c484.22$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2229748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No2c482$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.821,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No16c479.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3376755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes69c375.58$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.11,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No30c355.21$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.892,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes71c300.43$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.791,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c274.7$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked No50c258.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.966619.7%13 W · 53 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No33c248.57$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.433,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No27c248.4$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.855,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No21c227.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…0091backed No26c212.28$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No14c179.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4631219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No8c176.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.131,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb94a…d680backed No13c169.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5512348%59 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes49c156.4$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No8c155.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5314119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No39c149.88$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.052,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No28c135.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No34c132.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.425,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes48c129.28$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.539,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed No46c124.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.659552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe30b…4252backed Yes72c111.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.736100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e28…eefdbacked No28c105.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9213243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf143…b143backed Yes73c103.71$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5111069.1%76 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac6c…ff17backed Yes77c100.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.373756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2925175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe092…dbb3backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No35c98.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5312365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes62c96.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.751,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No21c95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.122550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes68c80.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.710633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes72c80.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No27c66.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x45db…f976backed No28c61.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.114,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes70c57.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4612849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes69c55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No21c54.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.682268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No31c54.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No41c53.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2293837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No22c52.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5916263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No31c51.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb954…c00dbacked Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.53148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fb…427abacked No34c48.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No28c47.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No23c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.542,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No25c44.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x167e…ee43backed No27c40.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.833863.2%24 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes80c40.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes63c40.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1342253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed No29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.577047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No31c35.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.217150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes62c32.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.342,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes69c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.284070%28 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47cf…5732backed No42c29.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.686160.7%37 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x823a…61abbacked No40c29.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.787869.2%54 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe58c…27fabacked No39c28.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes70c28.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4130664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes47c25.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6318255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9838…64dabacked Yes55c25.16$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.233100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes53c24.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5316354%88 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed Yes53c23.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2731836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x318b…d827backed No47c23.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.272934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No55c23.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.882562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes53c22.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6740525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No52c22.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.552,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7047…31b3backed Yes63c20.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2921…1706backed Yes65c19.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.692450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f6…b059backed Yes67c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.94666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes67c17.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.763135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes71c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0430652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc7…b6b0backed Yes69c15.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.89742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes78c15.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.351464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b2f…2004backed Yes71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.