Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d4f272d16e9a4d1630e13b5a953331ef6bc50583ad6730f9c6bdf75d24316d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 70c | 914.64$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 851.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 58c | 645.56$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 77c | 484.22$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 2c | 482$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 16c | 479.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 69c | 375.58$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 30c | 355.21$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 71c | 300.43$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 274.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 50c | 258.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 33c | 248.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 248.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 21c | 227.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…0091backed No | 26c | 212.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 14c | 179.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 176.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 13c | 169.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 156.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 8c | 155.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 149.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 135.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 132.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 48c | 129.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 46c | 124.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30b…4252backed Yes | 72c | 111.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…eefdbacked No | 28c | 105.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 73c | 103.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 77c | 100.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 35c | 98.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 62c | 96.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 68c | 80.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 72c | 80.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 27c | 66.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 28c | 61.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 70c | 57.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 21c | 54.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 31c | 54.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 41c | 53.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 22c | 52.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 31c | 51.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…427abacked No | 34c | 48.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 28c | 47.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 25c | 44.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed No | 27c | 40.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 80c | 40.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 63c | 40.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 31c | 35.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 62c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 42c | 29.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 40c | 29.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…27fabacked No | 39c | 28.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 47c | 25.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…64dabacked Yes | 55c | 25.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 53c | 24.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 53c | 23.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 47c | 23.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 55c | 23.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 53c | 22.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 52c | 22.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7047…31b3backed Yes | 63c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 65c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…b059backed Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 67c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 71c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…b6b0backed Yes | 69c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 78c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…2004backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.