MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94dbd21a611980f36bb832d4f96a6e435995df188a4bd2826dd23addf4940d76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Phillies, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Phillies | 53c | 18,835$9,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,845.58 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cubs | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Cubs | 52c | 6,968$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.8 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Phillies | 52c | 4,220$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.6 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies | 54c | 3,040$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Cubs | 48c | 2,714$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.72 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 48c | 2,299$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.22 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Phillies | 51c | 2,285$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.72 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Cubs | 48c | 2,206$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.96 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 45c | 1,966$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.46 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cubs | 47c | 1,102$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.94 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cubs | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cubs | 49c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.59 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cubs | 50c | 710.2$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 48c | 638$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.16 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cubs | 49c | 406$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Cubs | 47c | 383.52$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Cubs | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Phillies | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Phillies | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Cubs | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Phillies | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cubs | 46c | 64.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cubs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Cubs | 51c | 34.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cubs | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.