Tennis · resolved market
Cap Cana: Mariano Navone vs Nick Hardt
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e04263e1981e5dd1277c47f13ccac5b2748e343a8b0c8366829f3ca2068839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mariano Navoneof Mariano Navone, Nick Hardt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,476 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Mariano Navone | 72c | 7,594$5,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.91 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mariano Navone | 73c | 5,927$4,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.21 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nick Hardt | 42c | 3,870$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.27 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nick Hardt | 25c | 3,393$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.11 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nick Hardt | 8c | 3,330$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.85 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Nick Hardt | 18c | 2,321$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.35 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Mariano Navone | 49c | 1,743$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.19 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 1,722$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nick Hardt | 21c | 1,347$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.15 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed Nick Hardt | 24c | 902.25$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.54 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Mariano Navone | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Nick Hardt | 12c | 615.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…f7ddbacked Mariano Navone | 61c | 574.24$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.24 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…36c9backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…d98abacked Mariano Navone | 79c | 503.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 249 | 62.2%155 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Nick Hardt | 40c | 488.29$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Nick Hardt | 17c | 411.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 356.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f2…a822backed Mariano Navone | 80c | 335.91$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…da35backed Mariano Navone | 64c | 312.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 479 | 46.3%222 W · 257 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mariano Navone | 61c | 276.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Nick Hardt | 24c | 266.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 254.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Mariano Navone | 77c | 250.65$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 221.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Nick Hardt | 24c | 220.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…02c6backed Nick Hardt | 6c | 194.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 7.5%6 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Nick Hardt | 24c | 191.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nick Hardt | 37c | 189.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Nick Hardt | 18c | 189.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…f64abacked Nick Hardt | 53c | 188.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 849 | 63.1%536 W · 313 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Nick Hardt | 20c | 174.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 305 | 42.6%130 W · 175 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Nick Hardt | 15c | 168$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mariano Navone | 72c | 165$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mariano Navone | 69c | 154.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 151.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Nick Hardt | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 182 | 33.5%61 W · 121 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Nick Hardt | 37c | 133.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 128.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nick Hardt | 27c | 126.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Nick Hardt | 20c | 122.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nick Hardt | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Mariano Navone | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 692 | 49.6%343 W · 349 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Mariano Navone | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Mariano Navone | 49c | 92.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…99d8backed Mariano Navone | 70c | 88.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Mariano Navone | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Nick Hardt | 18c | 73.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nick Hardt | 31c | 72.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Mariano Navone | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ec94backed Nick Hardt | 25c | 52.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Nick Hardt | 52c | 51.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Mariano Navone | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Mariano Navone | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Mariano Navone | 78c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Mariano Navone | 77c | 37.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Nick Hardt | 36c | 37.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 211 | 72%152 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…421bbacked Mariano Navone | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Mariano Navone | 58c | 30.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Mariano Navone | 56c | 21.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Nick Hardt | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Mariano Navone | 75c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Mariano Navone | 73c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap Cana: Mariano Navone vs Nick Hardtthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Navone vs HardtHardt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.