Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ff131d21889eb6913df955019899cf09e0e0cb46789394807d9d9c7cc2bad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 132.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 126.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 66c | 121.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 14c | 106.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 106.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 93.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 90.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 28c | 89.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 35c | 86.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 41c | 85.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 81.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 80.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 63.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 33c | 60.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 73c | 60.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 46c | 55.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 53.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 52.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…f8f5backed Yes | 51c | 46.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 45.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 68c | 44.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 65c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 42.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 39.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 37.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 49c | 35.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed No | 67c | 31.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 31.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 31.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 45c | 28.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 26.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 24.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 68c | 18.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 72c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.