MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9502e4876247953eabe5fc438c4f612ed3d6a95aefe9d1a7f11d30fac8e1af92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bravesof Reds, Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Braves | 54c | 6,734$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,095.51 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Reds | 46c | 6,517$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997.76 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Braves | 56c | 4,634$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.9 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Reds | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Braves | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Reds | 44c | 1,835$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.4 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Reds | 44c | 1,287$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.28 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Reds | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Braves | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Braves | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Braves | 57c | 527.7$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.91 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Braves | 65c | 355.87$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Reds | 18c | 284$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Braves | 57c | 244$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Braves | 57c | 228$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Reds | 44c | 219$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Reds | 6c | 211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Braves | 56c | 187.27$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 43c | 161.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Braves | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Reds | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Reds | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds | 44c | 91.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Braves | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Braves | 57c | 63.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Braves | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Braves | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Braves | 59c | 51.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Braves | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Braves | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Braves | 56c | 45.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Braves | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Braves | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Braves | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.