NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9545cd26b3b6c6079b59cc02958c0abe84326be075543b1368c862bae7184978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Capitals, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Capitals | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Capitals | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 50c | 939.92$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Blackhawks | 49c | 857.62$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.11 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Capitals | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blackhawks | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blackhawks | 51c | 300.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Capitals | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Capitals | 48c | 121.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Blackhawks | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Blackhawks | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Capitals | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Blackhawks | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Capitals | 38c | 63.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Blackhawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Capitals | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Capitals | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Blackhawks | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Blackhawks | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Blackhawks | 70c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Capitals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. CapitalsBlackhawks won
- Blackhawks vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blackhawks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.