NHL · resolved market
Blackhawks vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27bc9efffbdca47d61a166c6d5b3696271f7d8582c49f4adbf40e3097f78efe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 44c | 3,855$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156.24 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Under | 46c | 695.65$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.65 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 582$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 55c | 369.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 297.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.63 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 45c | 297$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 278$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.58 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 178.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 134.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 66.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 48.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 30c | 41.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 54c | 27.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blackhawks vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Blackhawks vs. CapitalsBlackhawks won
- Blackhawks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.