MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9569493da78d14efafaeb14f8612fa7aa9770c44bcf9c18635996d4bf26f37ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 7,898$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 44c | 7,777$3,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.12 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 45c | 1,555$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.24 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 1,221$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 56c | 1,122$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.02 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,063$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 653.66$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.05 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 74c | 558.6$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 35c | 481.43$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 452.83$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 27c | 448.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 64c | 440.01$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 359.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…528ebacked Under | 54c | 327.85$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.06 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 204.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 192.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…6706backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 150.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 21c | 145.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 145.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 55c | 133.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Under | 45c | 116.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Over | 55c | 84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 30c | 73.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 69.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 20c | 64.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 24c | 60.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 43.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 61c | 41.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 57c | 17.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.