MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257869ed759941ebda7d9247f7a354d0a3ad8b4470a14f602970bbbcb34f4e6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 19,876$10,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,218.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 9,203$4,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,967.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 8,550$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 4,521$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…fb0fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 2,133$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 899.08$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 820.03$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.08 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 489.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 427.22$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.33 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 350.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 230.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 167.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 156$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 151.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.67 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 148.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 123.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 104.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 76.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 52.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 45.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 42.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 41.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 40.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 31.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 29.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 27.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…988cbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 24.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 22.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 19.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.