MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x658b2e9d900b464f6d44873e1768fdb4f92172a9b7a9f2f816801e2450e8e615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 9,609$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 78c | 8,527$6,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.87 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 57c | 806.01$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.87 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 761.11$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.94 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 519$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 66c | 303.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 61c | 123.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 21c | 76.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 62.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Over | 19c | 53.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 36c | 31.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Under | 80c | 24.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.