MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95b8790a74c46cfc4a05e44c7a9290e9579929a40c7a170851b12fbec221f992
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 1,902$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.35 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 1,460$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.1 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 645.35$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.66 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 609.42$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.41 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…9ea9backed Under | 66c | 287.06$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 255$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 67c | 213$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 42c | 171.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 171.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 166.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 78c | 132.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 23c | 131.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 67c | 119.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…6d57backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 65c | 81.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 49c | 72.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 63.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 65c | 47.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 68c | 44.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 38c | 35.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 62c | 28.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…b4b4backed Under | 66c | 17.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 70c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 69c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.