MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1e863268f6776af7883b82933f4aa7c8edc66b8df3a83c28a045a4834b9e051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 5,276$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 3,946$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.21 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 3,105$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Under | 2c | 3,057$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 2,394$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 2,050$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 1,969$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.07 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,662$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 56c | 1,186$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.57 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 1,027$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 668.67$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 568.25$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 56c | 410.5$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 52c | 390$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 316.72$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…4555backed Over | 51c | 281.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 50c | 277$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 39c | 245.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.52 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 232.65$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 59c | 225$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 35c | 207.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.16 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 202.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 165.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 37c | 148.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 50c | 127$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 70c | 114.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 50c | 108.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 50c | 102.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…6d57backed Over | 49c | 101.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3f…7320backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 51c | 98.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 96.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 51c | 69.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 51c | 65.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 44c | 64.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 63.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 61.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 51c | 60.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 54.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 45c | 44.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 48c | 39.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 38.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 52c | 38.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 54c | 37.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…b4b4backed Under | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…eb35backed Under | 51c | 32.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 51c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 56c | 27.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 48c | 24.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 71c | 23.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 51c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 50c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 51c | 20.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.