MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95bdedbd1efde3f82f31dee9687ed28dd1f238eae05ff9d23d52cfccc5bb3319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,199.99 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 48c | 7,324$3,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,515.75 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 4,005$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.62 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 3,794$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,821.67 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 2,478$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.34 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Under | 53c | 1,930$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.89 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,766$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 767$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.49 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 53c | 766.1$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.07 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 642$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.74 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 524.16$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.47 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 48c | 421.05$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 48c | 417.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 54c | 407.41$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.41 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 47c | 383$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…4d90backed Under | 54c | 351.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 332.42$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 47c | 245$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 54c | 222.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 203.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 47c | 182.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 51c | 82.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 48c | 81.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 55.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 46c | 51.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5422backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 37.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 49c | 30.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed Under | 53c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…7379backed Under | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Over | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsNo won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsWashington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.