MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b157887e053c37bd0afad2e0dbd447fe7272748227ca8b4681dfe7e5ccc260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 2,222$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.64 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Chicago Cubs | 53c | 1,879$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.87 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 928.42$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.65 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 461.53$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Chicago Cubs | 6c | 357.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 330.63$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 299.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 276.46$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.55 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 189.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 159.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…bae9backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 140.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a1…bb70backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…b990backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 76.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…9142backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 69.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 62.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d5…59e2backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 50.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 28.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 18.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsNo won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.