Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95f9e476c864c8f0218f74b2f12ac80e1f717122daf71a3c236c666dfdb74898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 50c | 1,267$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.79 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…aa11backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 651.04$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 419.55$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 360.41$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 50c | 350.02$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 273.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 42c | 272.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 271.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…6fe9backed Yes | 5c | 270.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 260.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 51c | 250.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 46c | 231.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 227.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 31c | 224.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 60c | 220.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 71c | 193.77$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 185.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 21c | 183.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 27c | 172.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.23 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 45c | 164.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 30c | 161.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 50c | 148.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 57c | 127.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 23c | 122.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 50c | 118.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 45c | 109.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…6a25backed Yes | 77c | 107.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 45c | 106.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 55c | 103.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 53c | 98.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 67c | 96.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 72c | 84.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 77.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 52c | 76.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 69c | 75.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…8a46backed Yes | 15c | 74.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 30c | 72.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 55c | 64.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 51c | 64.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 54c | 63.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 62.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa998…6421backed Yes | 54c | 62.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 51c | 58.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 45c | 57.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 69c | 56.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 53c | 54.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 44c | 52.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 52c | 50.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 51c | 49.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 49c | 48.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 49c | 48.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 43.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 62c | 43.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 51c | 43.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…8ae5backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 48c | 39.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 60c | 39.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 57c | 37.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 51c | 37.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…b6cdbacked Yes | 52c | 36.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 51c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 54c | 34.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 48c | 34.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 56c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 78c | 31.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 61c | 31.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 32c | 31.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 47c | 30.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…8f17backed Yes | 61c | 30.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 48c | 30.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked No | 47c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 36c | 29.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 37c | 28.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked Yes | 52c | 27.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 27.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 49c | 27.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 26.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…269cbacked No | 39c | 26.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 55c | 22.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 22.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 51c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 71c | 20.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 60c | 19.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…fc76backed Yes | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.