Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacea57d7580e123e00715dd6369e1b74c5f526e0c2f58ef47ee89666a3ada19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb991…aa11backed No | 2c | 2,097$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 517.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 28c | 509.06$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…8a46backed No | 21c | 404.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 333.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 40c | 331.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.15 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 24c | 298.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.48 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…039fbacked Yes | 25c | 293.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 68c | 292.72$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 290.25$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 285.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.3 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…f81bbacked No | 28c | 280.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 280.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 247.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 243.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 234.26$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 69c | 222.01$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 72c | 218.07$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 215.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed No | 77c | 207.01$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 189.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 189.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 28c | 167$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 22c | 155.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 53c | 131.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 49c | 131.23$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 31c | 125.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 16c | 121.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 54c | 121.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked No | 71c | 115.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 108.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 107.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 106.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…ab89backed Yes | 15c | 102.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +233.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 100.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 92.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…947cbacked No | 12c | 86.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 74c | 80.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 78.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 75.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 72.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 70.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 17c | 68.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…6905backed Yes | 20c | 67.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 26c | 65.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 62.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 22c | 62.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…05c8backed Yes | 26c | 58.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 51c | 58.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 53.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 64c | 51.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 22c | 46.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 46.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 62c | 44.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 27c | 43.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 41.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed No | 79c | 41.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 37c | 37.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 36.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…61d3backed No | 73c | 34.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 31c | 34.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 71c | 33.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 31.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 79c | 30.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 68c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 75c | 28.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 74c | 28.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 77c | 27.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 25.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 24.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 21.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 76c | 20.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…dfaebacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 18.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 79c | 18.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 76c | 17.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 71c | 17.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 75c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…a2e9backed No | 80c | 14.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.