NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9617b04a06c1a40acff407dac4efbaa0fe9c26152468ac74d72f91355e6f7605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 53c | 21,522$11,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,017.8 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 48c | 19,760$9,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,404.4 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff3c…09ebbacked Under | 47c | 6,564$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 53c | 4,552$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.26 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 45c | 4,386$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.74 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 3,548$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.68 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 51c | 3,333$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.17 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,897$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.55 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…baf0backed Over | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 816$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.84 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Over | 43c | 633$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.04 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 52c | 416.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Under | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 49c | 131.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Over | 54c | 41.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Blues vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Blues vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.