Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9620f4c78b2b63e646e694881eec2edda261a2c6b8265720786f258459ebb426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9da…f17abacked Yes | 5c | 578.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 11c | 342.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 32c | 307.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 265.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 253.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 161.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 152.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 141.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 10c | 126.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 112.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed No | 57c | 106.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 100.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 81.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 73.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 73.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 67.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 63.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 30c | 59.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…e353backed No | 59c | 58.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 47.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 61c | 46.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8f…ac04backed Yes | 42c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 43.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 41c | 35.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 39c | 31.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 75c | 17.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.