Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17c8fecb853764147990f6c6ce54b1cbe47bb7ec890c8085b3f91e2f86ece33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 27c | 481.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9da…f17abacked Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 195.9$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 26c | 156.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 142.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 130.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 118.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 111.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 96.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 86.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 21c | 80.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 78.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 27c | 77.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 74.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 20c | 73.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 67.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 29c | 56.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 72c | 55.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 55.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 54.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 29c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 48.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 37c | 42.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 41.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 43c | 38.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 38.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 36.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 74c | 28.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.