Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5210f395e792d7dfbc9aaf27911b6b81f9565b188b6702611735a8bf1a376ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8289…4473backed Yes | 37c | 1,160$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 79c | 501.12$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 342.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 249.85$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 243$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 186.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 177.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 42c | 128.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 14c | 127.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 108.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 100.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…6082backed Yes | 18c | 81.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +441.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 25c | 80.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 79.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 32c | 77.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 76.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 74.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 66.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 58c | 55.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 21c | 55.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 21c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 24c | 52.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 45.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 51c | 45.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…dfe9backed No | 50c | 42.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 51c | 39.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 54c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 47c | 27.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.