MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x962c7898efd0fc52dcac15404cfa5ec1ccf2581bb4f852f3f00dd4d4cd0d2288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 9,137$4,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 4,329$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 3,384$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.42 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…1b34backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 1,010$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.4 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 845$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.55 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 416$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 349.11$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 102.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 67.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 43.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-6.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.