MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc052cb7bcc49abac6001b0d1297da18dde5a3945ba630e1111cb216bdaa2ef16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 43c | 11,512$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,512.34 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 9,539$5,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,627.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 44c | 8,392$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,699.38 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 6,033$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 5,874$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 56c | 5,800$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 2,385$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.76 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 1,088$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.28 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 1,067$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,009$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x428d…8cb6backed Under | 57c | 781.91$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.87 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 337.37$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 56c | 305.22$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.74 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 258$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 48c | 256$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.38 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 41c | 197$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 169.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 162.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 63c | 158.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 65c | 153.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 11c | 132.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 130.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 42c | 120.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 41c | 119.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 60c | 113.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Over | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 45c | 101.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 46c | 90.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 48c | 87.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 75.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 60.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Under | 42c | 47.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 32.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 41c | 31.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 30.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352b…abd8backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 40c | 25.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 21.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Under | 73c | 19.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-6.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.