Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul win in Round 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x964a2c8a0dedb634f2d34fd71f838bdea8ca55d2c4014e8a89bd0213655e4ed4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ab…c575backed Yes | 0c | 12,508$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 1c | 9,547$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…7880backed Yes | 2c | 6,392$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…9732backed Yes | 2c | 4,952$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…7edbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,092$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Yes | 0c | 3,034$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…d9d2backed Yes | 1c | 2,474$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…0742backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…d6efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,928$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…b066backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcad…bb88backed Yes | 1c | 1,398$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…5cf6backed Yes | 1c | 1,344$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…90aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d7…5fb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec1…3f21backed Yes | 1c | 737.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…248fbacked Yes | 1c | 720$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Yes | 2c | 657.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…5152backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 1?this page
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 1?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 2?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 3?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 4?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 5?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 6?Yes won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 7?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 8?No won
- Will Anthony Joshua win via Decision?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 2?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 3?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 4?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 5?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 6?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 7?No won
- Will Jake Paul win in Round 8?No won
- Will Jake Paul win via Decision?No won
- Will the fight end in any other result?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.