MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96556d188be469b70eb503c22344c5e0fe32ce15c15f2b5ecbb6dc89c96f0945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 7,712$2,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,861.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 4,923$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.49 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 50c | 4,481$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.63 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 50c | 3,201$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.5 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 1,291$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.67 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 64c | 1,270$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.64 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 63c | 967.78$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.7 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 904$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 63c | 788$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.33 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 63c | 700$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 510.43$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 454.42$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.05 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 50c | 398.08$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 381.06$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.53 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 371.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 11c | 363.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 49c | 247$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 192$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked Over | 36c | 139.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 103$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 91.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 32c | 83.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 63c | 74.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 63c | 64.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 62.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 47c | 62.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 41c | 61.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 58.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 57.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 68c | 49.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 70c | 48.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 50c | 47.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 61c | 35.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 55c | 31.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be6…2fa5backed Under | 45c | 25.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 69c | 24.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 64c | 15.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.