MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ea6c8bf9ded52789eb7d86664199f5eb502845bc31a835e1eb568db80c0fe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 52c | 42,523$22,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,116.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 54c | 18,558$10,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,526.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 15,000$5,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,450 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 46c | 7,651$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,131.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Houston Astros | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed Houston Astros | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.58 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Houston Astros | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.58 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 2,347$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.87 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 2,166$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.83 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 1,666$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 1,055$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.33 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 1,050$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.16 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Houston Astros | 48c | 990$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros | 37c | 585$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.89 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 479$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 41c | 460.03$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 386.71$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.63 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 378.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 36c | 305.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 286.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 221.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 220$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Houston Astros | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 195.58$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 168.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 135$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Houston Astros | 38c | 135$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 134$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Houston Astros | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 98.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Houston Astros | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 78.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 77.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 71.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Houston Astros | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed Houston Astros | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 61.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 61.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Houston Astros | 43c | 55.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Houston Astros | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Texas Rangers | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Houston Astros | 57c | 44.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 43.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fc…ff0bbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 42.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Houston Astros | 37c | 40.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Houston Astros | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Texas Rangers | 54c | 32.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 26.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Houston Astros | 42c | 24.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 21.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba71…1209backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 20.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Houston Astros | 59c | 20.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 19.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Houston Astros | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.